AGP Executive Report

Baidoa Crisis: The UN has called for an immediate halt to fighting in Baidoa, warning that violence is deepening Somalia’s humanitarian emergency and putting displaced families and aid access at risk. Health: Somalia has launched its first national mental health policy, setting out plans to expand care and tackle stigma through 2030. Parliament: The Lower House has docked the salaries of lawmakers who missed sessions without authorization, while allowing appeals. Territorial Setbacks: Al-Shabaab, Jubaland forces and fighters aligned with South West State’s former president took three towns from federal forces in 48 hours, including strategic Hees and border town Beled Hawo. Flood Risk: Heavy rain is forecast as the Shabelle River nears flood-risk levels at Jowhar, adding to concerns over a potentially severe El Niño season.

Territorial Setbacks: Somalia’s federal government lost three towns in 48 hours: al-Shabaab captured Hees, Jubaland forces took Balad Hawo, and forces aligned with South West’s ousted leader seized Qansax Dheere. Hees’s fall also threatens an army supply route. Flood Threat: The Shabelle River at Jowhar is nearing moderate flood-risk levels as heavy rain is forecast. In Beledweyne, hundreds of displaced families have been evicted from homes used as shelter ahead of expected El Niño flooding. Regional Security: Somalia condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi airports that killed civilians, saying Red Sea security is tied to its own. Egypt is reportedly preparing to deploy troops to Somalia under security cooperation and the African Union mission. Regional Controls: Northeastern Somalia has ordered airlines to obtain approval before transporting weapons or troops, as authorities seek tighter oversight of security movements. AFCON Qualifier: Ghana’s only CAF-approved stadium faces possible pitch damage after being booked for a church event, raising concerns ahead of next month’s qualifier against Somalia.

Flood Risk: The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen to 4.70 metres, just 30 centimetres below the moderate flood-risk threshold, with heavy rain forecast. In Beledweyne, hundreds of displaced families have been evicted from homes on higher ground as residents prepare for flooding, leaving some without shelter. Regional Security: Egypt is reportedly preparing to deploy troops to Somalia under AU and bilateral arrangements, but has not disclosed numbers. Somalia also condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, calling Red Sea security vital to its own. Red Sea Risks: AFRICOM warns the Houthis may be seeking a foothold in Somalia alongside al-Shabaab. Renewed fighting in Yemen has displaced more than 200,000 people, and nearly 4,000 have crossed to Djibouti and Somalia. Security and Politics: Somalia’s intelligence agency says it killed former al-Shabaab intelligence chief Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow in Jilib. Separately, Jubaland forces took control of Beled Hawo, while forces aligned with former South West State leader Laftagareen captured Qansaxdheere, amid wider political disputes.

South West Tensions: Forces aligned with former state president Abdiaziz Laftagareen took control of Qansaxdheere, as rival factions contest authority ahead of expected talks in Baidoa. Gedo Shift: Jubbaland forces entered Beled Hawo after former security commander Abdirashid Janan handed over troops, shifting control in the border town. Regional Security: Egypt is reportedly preparing a possible troop deployment to Somalia, but has not disclosed numbers or confirmed plans. A reported Somali deal to buy Pakistan’s JF-17 jets also remains unconfirmed by either government. Militant Threat: AFRICOM warned that Yemen’s Houthis may be seeking a foothold alongside al-Shabaab in northern Somalia, potentially raising risks to shipping in the Gulf of Aden. Humanitarian Pressures: Aid cuts are worsening food insecurity, with families facing hunger as assistance dwindles; Somalia has also approved Ebola preparedness measures after Kenya reported an imported case. Political Dispute: North Eastern Somalia’s president and vice president are at odds over appointments and decision-making, with lawmakers reportedly divided.

Maritime Security: Somali piracy is resurging, with 25 incidents recorded around the Horn of Africa by mid-September, up from nine in 2025, as naval forces shift to other regional conflicts. The final Pakistani sailors held after a hijacking off Somalia have returned home. Counterterrorism: Puntland operations and US support have weakened Islamic State’s Somali branch by disrupting its financing networks. Somali intelligence also says it killed a senior al-Shabaab figure accused of involvement in major attacks. Local Security: Laftagaren forces have taken Qansah-dhere, west of Baidoa, in a fresh shift in control in South West State. Regional Tensions: Somalia is seeking Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets as it works to rebuild its air force. Meanwhile, Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in backing coastal states’ role in Red Sea governance, amid escalating conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Humanitarian Risks: Funding cuts are worsening hunger, with reports of a family of 17 surviving on a small pot of rice. Somalia is also preparing for El Niño floods and screening travellers after Kenya confirmed an imported Ebola case.

Defense: Somalia has reportedly agreed to buy Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets as it rebuilds its air force, though neither government has confirmed a deal. Political tensions: Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed urged a broad national front and warned that threats against opponents could push the country toward chaos. Separately, forces loyal to former Southwest leader Abdiasis Laftagaren captured Qansah-dhere, west of Baidoa, as federal troops reinforce the regional capital. Institutions: A constitutional commission says that from October 14, MPs will be barred from also serving as ministers. Security: Somali intelligence says it killed former al-Shabaab intelligence chief Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow in an operation in Jilib. Health and humanitarian needs: Somalia is screening travelers after Kenya reported an imported Ebola case, while funding cuts threaten food aid and raise the risk of famine. Piracy: The final Pakistani survivors of a hijacking off Somalia have returned home.

Labour Mobility: Somalia’s Labour Minister Salim Alio Ibro joined counterparts at a Tanzania-hosted dialogue on fair and sustainable worker mobility between Africa and Gulf states. Security: Somalia’s intelligence agency said it killed a senior al-Shabaab Amniyat figure accused of involvement in major attacks. Red Sea Diplomacy: Somalia, Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan backed coastal states’ role in governing the Red Sea, as Ethiopia again pressed for maritime access. Mogadishu has said Ethiopia can negotiate commercial access to Somali ports. Health: Somalia says emergency funding has helped keep nearly 600 health facilities open. Authorities are also screening arrivals at Mogadishu airport after Kenya reported an Ebola case. Piracy: Three Pakistani crew members rescued after their tanker was hijacked off Somalia returned home, ending five months in captivity; three colleagues were killed during the recovery operation.

Counterterrorism: Somalia’s intelligence agency says it killed former al-Shabaab Amniyat chief Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow in an operation in Jilib. NISA accused him of helping plan major attacks, including the 2017 Mogadishu truck bombing. Public Health: Nearly 600 health facilities at risk of closure will stay open through December after the government secured emergency funding. Somalia is also screening arrivals at Mogadishu airport following an Ebola case in Kenya. Piracy: The final three Pakistani crew members rescued from the hijacked tanker MT Honour 25 arrived home, closing a five-month ordeal that left five sailors dead. Regional Tensions: Somalia’s Doolow commissioner said his district would follow Ethiopian forces’ policy until a capable federal government takes charge, as reports suggest Ethiopia may withdraw troops from Somalia. Separately, Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in affirming that Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states, amid Ethiopia’s renewed push for sea access. Climate Preparedness: Somalia issued an emergency alert over El Niño flood risks, while the Somali Red Crescent and ICRC trained 72 responders ahead of possible flooding.

Somalia Politics & Rights: A Somali woman says she was tortured after speaking out online about forced evictions in Mogadishu, high fuel prices and nepotism, alleging police abduction, assault, and detention without access to a lawyer. Red Sea Security: Yemen’s government forces claim they retook Mokha and parts of the Bab el-Mandeb coast, raising stakes for Djibouti and Ethiopia as fighting threatens wider regional spillover. Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt and Ethiopia trade fresh accusations over the GERD as war in northern Ethiopia deepens tensions; meanwhile, Eritrea’s return to the spotlight follows renewed fears of a broader conflict. Regional Governance: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan reaffirm Red Sea sovereignty and navigation control by coastal states, while disputes over Nile water rights continue. El Niño & Shipping: Maersk warns Super El Niño could disrupt East Africa’s ports and inland routes from October to December, as wetter-than-normal conditions raise flood risk. Humanitarian & Maritime: The IMO mourns seafarers killed during a Somalia-area hijacking rescue, while Indonesia says rescued crew members are receiving medical and psychological care after captivity.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan reaffirmed Red Sea navigation and coastal-state sovereignty in a New Alamein declaration, calling for peaceful solutions amid Ethiopia’s escalating conflict and regional tensions. Somalia-Ethiopia Ports: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Ethiopia can access Somali ports if it negotiates, as Ethiopia presses for sea access while fighting continues in the north. El Niño Preparedness: Somalia’s Red Crescent Society, with ICRC support, trained 72 responders for expected El Niño floods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, with boats pre-positioned in flood-prone areas. Maritime Piracy Aftermath: Indonesia said it will provide medical and psychological care for four Indonesian crew members freed after a Somali pirate ordeal aboard MT Honour 25. Regional Risk Warning: The World Bank warned El Niño could cut crop yields across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, with millions needing urgent food assistance by early 2027.

Red Sea Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for political solutions as Ethiopia’s war escalates, stressing freedom of navigation and saying Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states. Ethiopia Pushback: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry replied that any Nile and Red Sea talks must reflect its geographic reality and “legitimate interests,” as fighting in Tigray raises fears of wider conflict. Somalia-Space Deal: Turkey’s Erdoğan announced an agreement to build a spaceport in Somalia, linking it to Ankara’s lunar and satellite ambitions. Piracy Returns Home: Three remaining Pakistani crew members from the MT Honour 25 hijacking were flown to Addis Ababa, with plans to reach Karachi soon after Somalia and EU naval support helped secure their release. Somaliland Tensions: Somaliland officials say they want air-defense systems with Israeli support, citing Turkey’s growing military presence and possible Berbera base plans. Somalia Economy: Somalia advanced economic reforms and climate-finance discussions with development partners and the IMF program review.

Red Sea & Nile Diplomacy: Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan issued the El Alamein Joint Declaration, reaffirming Somalia’s sovereignty and rejecting any support for Somaliland, while stressing Red Sea governance by coastal states and opposing unilateral Nile actions as Ethiopia’s regional tensions rise. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Northern Ethiopia’s Tigray saw renewed airstrikes and artillery, with reports of at least 17 killed near Mekelle, as fears grow of a wider regional war. Somalia-UAE Relations: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said ties with the UAE are not cut, embassies remain open, but Mogadishu has suspended security and military agreements, accusing Abu Dhabi of backing Somaliland politically. Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan’s DPM Ishaq Dar confirmed the last three surviving MT Honour 25 crew members were rescued and flown to Addis Ababa, with expected return to Karachi on Oct 7, after earlier arrivals of injured sailors and remains. Disaster Preparedness: Somalia issued an emergency alert ahead of El Niño-linked heavy rains, warning river-basin communities to prepare for flooding. Aviation Update: Somalia’s civil aviation authority denied claims Mogadishu airport would close. Space Ambitions: Türkiye and Somalia signed an agreement for Türkiye to build a spaceport in Somalia, as Erdogan reiterated plans to keep pushing into space.

Ethiopia-Tigray: Ethiopian federal forces are reported to have full control of Mekelle, with communications restored after more than a week, but residents fear the conflict could drag on and spread regionally. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in El-Alamein calling for peaceful solutions, rejecting interference, and backing Sudan’s unity while also rejecting any recognition of “Somaliland.” Red Sea & Nile: The same summit pushed for exclusive coastal-state control of Red Sea governance and rejected unilateral actions that undermine Nile water rights, stressing international law and “no harm.” Somalia-Israel Stance: Somalia’s president reiterated the country will not accept any Israeli military presence, including plans linked to Berbera. Maritime Security: A Somali pirate hostage ordeal involving the MT Honour 25 continues to ripple as injured crew arrive in Karachi after rescue operations off Somalia. Regional Cooperation: Uganda is set to host an inaugural conference on military operations other than war, with Somalia among expected participants.

Red Sea Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia signed the Alamein Joint Declaration, pledging a unified stance on Red Sea governance, state sovereignty and Nile rights, while stressing navigation safety and rejecting unilateral actions that harm downstream Nile users. Horn of Africa Tensions: Somalia’s president said Ethiopia can use Somali ports for trade if Addis Ababa requests it and negotiates terms under international law, as regional leaders meet in Egypt amid Ethiopia–Eritrea fallout and renewed fighting in Tigray. No Israeli Bases: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera Somalia will not accept any Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” warning against plans to use Berbera’s airport and a naval base—prompting Somaliland to reject Mogadishu’s claims. Clan Peace Deal: Al-Shabaab announced a deal with the Hawadle clan in Hiran to end a four-year conflict, aiming to implement Islamic law in Hawadle areas. Elections in Hirshabelle: Somalia’s electoral commission released results for Hirshabelle’s House and local councils, with the JSP leading local seats. Maritime Incident Aftermath: Pakistan repatriated four injured sailors and the remains of three killed crew from the MT Honour 25 hijacking, following Puntland’s recovery operation.

Israeli Presence Row: Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera Mogadishu will not accept any Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” warning Tel Aviv aims to set up a naval base in Berbera and use its airport, with Somaliland residents also opposing. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt will host a four-way summit in Alamein on Sunday with Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan as Ethiopia’s renewed fighting and a diplomatic rupture between Addis Ababa and Asmara raise fears of wider instability. Ethiopia’s War Spillover: Reports say Ethiopian federal forces have entered Mekelle after rebels abandoned the city, while analysts warn the Tigray conflict could pull in neighboring crises across the Horn and Red Sea. Pakistan Repatriations: Pakistan’s PMO says bodies of three Pakistanis killed in Somalia are in Addis Ababa for onward flight to Karachi, as officials coordinate clearances; four Pakistani sailors freed from the hijacked tanker are also due to return. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from CERF for 12 underfunded crises, including $16m for Somalia. Governance & Controls: Golis Telecom Somalia announced a vacancy for an Internal Auditor to strengthen governance, risk management and internal controls.

EAC Finance Push: Somalia’s People’s Assembly speaker Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur says EAC parliament speakers in Arusha agreed to press governments to clear unpaid regional contributions, as the bloc faces a $125m debt and only 17% of 2026/27 dues have been paid. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s Al-Sisi met Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki, stressing support for Somalia’s sovereignty and Red Sea security, ahead of a four-way summit in New Alamein with Sudan’s Burhan to coordinate on the Horn and Ethiopia’s conflict. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from CERF for 12 underfunded crises, including $16m for Somalia, aiming to reach 87m people needing urgent help. Somalia Security & Claims: President Mohamud told Al Jazeera Somalia will not accept any Israeli presence “under any circumstances,” warning of plans tied to Berbera. Maritime Tragedy: Pakistan says it is arranging repatriation of bodies of three Pakistanis killed during the MT Honour 25 rescue off Somalia, while Egypt and Somalia also coordinate the return of eight freed Egyptian sailors. Cash Crunch: A Somalia-focused report warns the country’s cash shortage is worsening as fuel costs rise and security and political risks deter investment.